Music libraries have traditionally been regarded as a specialty asset vulnerable to the changing winds of the music industry. However, the current uptick in deals, not only inside the music industry but also now substantially impacted and leveraged by the advent of private equity, has forever transformed the game.
You only have to look at the recent prices for back-catalogs to know that this is a flourishing industry. The exact price tag for Bob Dylan's collection has yet to be revealed, but industry sources have speculated a range of $300-$600 million, while Stevie Nicks sold a portion of her catalog for $100 million.
BMG's partnership with KKR to finance $1 billion for music collections is a clear indication of the company's belief in the future earning power that music royalties would provide.
The rise in the acquisition of music collections represents a paradigm shift in the music industry's income model.
While the deal volumes are massive, it's actually a more cautious approach because it protects against the riskier artist portfolio investment theory.
With an existing music catalog, you simply multiply current revenues by a growth multiple to get a hockey stick chart.
So, what are the underlying variables that have resulted in such a high growth multiple?
The first factor is the steady rise of streaming services such as Apple Music and Spotify, which are consistently bringing in new audiences and reigniting interest in both classics and long-tail unknowns. Investing in the long-term financial returns of various types of music catalogs is comparable to how institutions invest in stable asset classes such as gold.
The second factor is the growing popularity of media-driven engagement on social media platforms. Audiences are getting exposed to music in new ways, from Instagram to TikTok to Twitch, and this trend is certain to continue. The revenues continue to pour in...
However, some of this is old news. The future Metaverse will be the next great thing in our digital life, and it will necessitate a lot more music content than now exists.
Imagine how people will feel in a more immersive 3D Metaverse. If you think people enjoy Facebook and Instagram in their current 2D format, imagine how they will feel in a more immersive 3D experience that's the Metaverse. The Metaverse is poised to disrupt everything from games to e-commerce to the virtual office, in addition to social connections.
If the Metaverse's essence is that anybody can utilize its protocols to create and customize their own worlds, then equivalent protocols for music will be required in these virtual environments, allowing everyone to customize the soundtrack to their digital existence.
So, in terms of music fulfillment, what does the Metaverse require?
For starters, there's the question of personalization. The only way to do so is to incorporate a robust music engine that can manage a large repertoire of music that can be customized immediately.
Then there's the matter of volume. To meet consumer demand, over 1.2 million music tracks are added to music streaming services each month in today's industry. However, we must embrace the fact that the laws of the known universe will no longer apply in the Metaverse.
There will be unlimited musical parameters in every square inch of the Metaverse. If we assume a tectonic shift in user behavior from 2D social media to more immersive Metaverse worlds, we're looking at 2 billion user sessions per day (based on Facebook's current DAUs), with users expecting new music every time they 'walk' into a new environment or interact with a digital good, etc. With these figures, I'm guessing a daily minimum of several million new soundtracks will be required.
The music business and Metaverse tech companies are under a lot of pressure to perform as a result of all of this. However, AI music technology is the answer. It's adaptable which, like Metaverse architecture, allow anyone to readily create and change music without needing a lot of musical understanding.
One of AI music technology's most revolutionary advances is that it democratizes music creation for everyone, allowing non-musicians to create studio-quality music and, in doing so, unlocking the potential for any creator, app developer, or tech company to programmatically generate original music for their specific use-case, media, or Metaverse environment.
How will the market price burgeoning AI music catalogs that have no limitations and are well positioned to serve future technology trends, if today's rising price-tags are an indication of how customers value a'fixed' music catalog (i.e. a finite number of static music tracks)?
AI music libraries differ significantly in that they do not have a certain amount of songs, but rather the ability to create an endless number of track combinations and compositions, which can be created by the AI technology's owner, and created by users who use the technology as a tool that music labels can use to expand their collection.
As a result, a conflict arises: who will own and wield these AI music collections, and how competitive will they be? If monopolization trends in the tech sector are to be believed, there will be few dominant technology-driven AI music catalogs available, but many assertive acquirers – from tech to media to music industry players – will seek to profit from the catalog's long-term royalties and competitive advantage.
